Diaz 11/8 to win via submission a solid looking bet ahead of Fight Night 19
UFC Fight Night 19 on Wednesday night is headlined by a Lightweight bout between Nate Diaz and Melvin Guillard.
The fight will be a good test for Diaz as he goes up against is Guillard, who has a considerable size advantage.
Diaz, a best price 5/13 with Stan James, has the advantage when it comes to fighting technique and goes into the bout looking for a win after losing his last two fights.
Guillard, available at 21/20 with Boylesports, has won his last three fights. Freakishly athletic, he is 8/1 with Paddy Power to record a first round win.
But Guillard has weaknesses in his game - his submission defence being a major flaw.
Six of his seven professional defeats have been via submission and against a submission specialist in Diaz, Guillard may be in for a rough ride tonight in Oklahoma.
Diaz, although lacking in some areas where Guillard excels, such as raw athleticism, possesses not only an awesome submission game, but also a slick boxing set up.
The 24-year-old will almost certainly be looking to take the fight to ground in order to make Guillard tap. His only real obstacle is being able to get his larger opponent off his feat.
Despite losing his last two fights, Wednesday night's main event is Diaz's to lose.
Paddy Power offer 9/2 on Diaz winning in round two and 11/8 to win via submission - both look solid bets, providing Diaz capitalises on Guillard's lack of technique.
In other main card bouts at Fight Night 19...
Gray Maynard (1/3 Sky Bet) v Roger Huerta (5/2 bet365)
Maynard is undefeated and looks good value to keep his record intact. Both fighters have similar styles and this could go the distance
Carlos Condit (1/4 Boylesports) v Jake Ellenberger (13/4 Stan James)
Condit lost to Martin Kampmann on his UFC debut and will be looking to impress against veteran Ellenberger. Condit, a former WEC welterweight champion, has faced tougher opponents than Ellenberger has during his career, and that could give him the edge tonight. Another fight that could go to the judges.
Nate Quarry (4/11 Paddy Power) v Tim Credeur (9/4 Betfred)
Credeur will look to take this fight to the mat and if he manages to do that could cause an upset win here. If the fight stays standing, Quarry should win, but his odds-on price tag may look far too short should Credeur take him to ground.
Paddy Power are also offering odds on which bout tonight takes Fight of the Night, with Diaz v Guillard of interest at 7/2, while Steve Cantwell v Brian Stann from the prelim card at 7/1 may also be worth a punt.
Fight of the Night odds:
7/2 - Gray Maynard v Roger Huerta
7/2 - Nate Diaz v Melvin Guillard
7/1 - Chris Wilson v Mike Pyle
7/1 - Steve Cantwell v Brian Stann
8/1 - Carlos Condit v Jake Ellenberger
8/1 - Nate Quarry v Tim Credeur
9/1 - Sam Stout v Philippe Nover
12/1 - Brock Larson v Mike Pierce
14/1- Ryan Jensen v Steve Steinbeiss
16/1 - Jeremy Stephens v Justin Buchholz
20/1 - CB Dolloway v Jay Silva